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Cool. This all matches up pretty well with what I was thinking. Reading Steve's reply I realize that mathematically what PERT is asking for is in fact the mode (most likely) and that the expected value needs to be calculated from that. I think that my confusion came from the fact that for most reasonable...
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Normally "expected" = expected value, i.e., the mean. With PERT, you take (1*low estimate + 4*most likely estimate + 1* high estimate)/6 and that equals the expected value, i.e., again the mean. You have to supply the most likely (nominally, the mode). [quote user="brucehenry"]I'm...
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